November FOMC statement may look similar to September:

  • Fed meets next week, though widely expected to leave rates unchanged given near-term election overhang. WSJ (Hilsenrath co-wrote) said challenge for Fed will be how strongly to signal expectations for a December move. Noted with futures market currently placing a 74% probability on a December rate hike, November statement may be little changed from September. Article also highlighted some potential Fed wariness surrounding a more explicit signal, like the one it gave at the October 2015 meeting when it said that it might be appropriate to raise rates at the “next meeting” (which it subsequently did in December). Noted how the minutes from this April’s meeting said they might raise rates in June, but they later decided not do so (Brexit uncertainty the big headwind). Article went on to discuss a number of the usual suspects surrounding policy, including an increasingly scrutinized debate about the costs and benefits of running a high pressure economy.