China manufacturing PMIs surprise to upside:

  • Official China manufacturing PMI increased to 51.2 in October from 50.4 in September. This was ahead of 50.3 consensus and strongest reading in over two years. Details fairly upbeat. Production increased to 53.3 from 52.8. New orders increased to 52.8 from 50.9. Improvement driven by domestic demand as new export orders slipped to 49.2 from 50.1. More signs of inflationary pressures as PPI jumped over 5 points to 62.6, highest level in over five years. Employment remained in contraction for a 36th straight month. PMI for small enterprises improved, but remained in contraction. Separately, Caixin PMI also surprised to upside, increasing to 51.2 in October from 50.1. Press commentary tended to tout the China stabilization theme and tailwind from construction boom. Economists also flagged support from capacity reduction efforts in some resource industries. However, also more questions about sustainability given latest wave of government measures to address speculative excesses in the property market.