Low-quality OPEC deal expected:

  • OPEC under significant scrutiny with less than two weeks to go before a 30-Nov meeting intended to finalize a preliminary agreement reached in late-September to cut production to 32.5M-33.0M bpd. Note that OPEC produced 33.6M bpd in October. Headlines have been fairly volatile in recent days and while consensus still revolves around the likelihood that OPEC will be able to cobble together a last-minute deal, quality concerns seem to be a big issue. Bloomberg discussed this dynamic, noting that while 14 of 20 analysts expect a production cut, only seven of 20 said OPEC will specify how much each member should cut. Article also touched on longstanding concerns credibility concerns related to Russia’s unwillingness to cut production (it has suggested that it could freeze output to help stabilize the market. In addition, reiterated some of the possible complications surrounding Iraq’s participation, while also noting any deal-driven recovery in price could be self-defeating if it brings more NA shale production.