Trade a big wildcard under Trump:

  • Post-election narrative has been dominated by reflation theme driven by expectations for near-term tax reform, deregulation and infrastructure spending. However, still a lot concern about growth headwinds from potential immigration and trade policies. Latter a widely discussed area of uncertainty. WSJ noted that inside Trump’s economic team are two very different views on trade. Pointed out that one group, which gained momentum in the closing weeks of the campaign, largely rejects mainstream thinking on trade and believes eliminating deficits should be main goal of US policy. Views tariffs as critical tools to drive a rebound in middle class prosperity. Also noted that Alabama Senator Jeff Sessions, who will be nominated for the Attorney General position, has emerged as Trump’s most influential economic adviser. Pointed out that Sessions has been a longtime proponent of tighter trade and immigration rules.