Economists not as upbeat on growth as Trump:

  • Despite all the positive sentiment surrounding the reflation trade, there has been a recent pickup in concerns that fiscal stimulus expectations may be somewhat overdone. Much of the discussion has revolved around the growth headwinds from demographics and sluggish productivity trends, though there has also been some focus on the complications of corporate tax reform (even with the Republican sweep) and the poor track record of public-private infrastructure projects. CNBC noted that according to latest survey from the National Association for Business Economists (NABE), growth is expected to improve from 1.6% this year to 2.2% in 2017. More importantly, it noted that the NABE said that slow pace of growth may be the “new normal,” as more than 80% of survey panelists estimate potential rate of economic growth will be 2.5% or lower over next five years. This contrasts with recent comments from Treasury Secretary nominee Mnuchin, who said tax reform can drive US economy to a sustainable 3-4% growth rate.