Trump and the markets:

Several moving pieces for the market when it comes to the Trump victory. Biggest near-term takeaway revolves around selloff in global equities given the uncertainty dynamic. Treasuries a big area of confusion. Initial rally driven by heightened risk aversion and potential complications for December tightening. However, rates now sharply higher at long end, potentially baking […]

Where things stand going into today’s vote:

In terms of consensus expectations, market expecting Clinton to become next president, Republicans to maintain a majority (albeit smaller) in the House and Democrats to narrowly recapture the Senate majority. However, Senate race still seen as too close to call and expected to go down to the wire. Nothing particularly incremental in the latest updates. […]

What if Clinton wins?:

Clinton win Tuesday expected to provide a tailwind for risk assets. However, strength may be muted to some extent given big rally on Monday following combination of the Comey development. Bond yields expected to go higher given increased likelihood of a December rate hike. This would be good for cyclical plays, particularly the financials, even […]

What if Trump wins?:

Risk assets expected to come under pressure in the wake of a Trump victory. Biggest losers would be Mexican peso and other trade-leveraged/ emerging market plays. Likely to underpin safe-haven assets such as Japanese yen, Swiss franc and gold. There have been thoughts that S&P 500 could decline ~5% over the near term, though a […]

Latest polls show Clinton narrowly ahead:

Ahead of election on Tuesday, Hillary Clinton still seen as frontrunner, though polls highlight a tight race.WSJ/NBC poll showed Clinton ahead by 4 points, down from a +11 lead in mid-October. Fox Newssurvey showed Clinton leading by 2, down slightly from a 3-point lead a week ago. ABC/Washington Post tracking poll put Clinton up 4 […]

Clinton holds narrow lead in national polls:

With just a few days to go before the US presidential election, Democrat Hillary Clinton holds a narrow, though tightening, lead in most national polls, with the RealClearPolitics showing her advantage down to an average down to just 1.6 points Reuters/Ipsos national daily tracking poll shows Clinton ahead of Trump by 6 points, the same […]